It was the miracle Australia’s east coast had been waiting for — on Thursday, the heavens opened up and rain arrived at last to provide some much-needed relief to the bushfire crisis that has ravaged the nation’s southeast.
Scientists say the deluge wasn’t due to divine intervention. Instead, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole — a climatic phenomenon of near-record intensity — had finally ended. “It signals the arrival of typical summer conditions,” Phil Campbell from the Bureau of Meteorology said.
“We’ve seen a return to normalcy, and the arrival of the northern monsoon has given us the tropical moisture that (weather) systems can tap into.”
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The Indian Ocean Dipole was a major cause of last year’s heatwaves, and it has played a prominent role in the country’s unprecedented bushfire season.
The country’s bone-dry east coast has endured the strongest “positive IOD phase” — in which warm water travels away from Australia towards the Horn of Africa — in decades.
Its reversal has helped ease the bushfire emergency that has gripped large parts of NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland since September.
The welcome end of the phenomenon prompted a heavy downpour across NSW, which brought the number of fires burning in the state down to double digits, at 85, for the first time since early December.
“We have had decent rain in some areas,” NSW Rural Fire Service spokeswoman Angela Burford said. “In parts of northern NSW, the rain was enough to put out the smaller fires that have been burning for months (and) that’s a major win for the RFS.”
Thunderstorms and heavy rain swept across towns stretching from East Gippsland in Victoria to Tweed Heads on the NSW-Queensland border, bringing hope that some of the fierce bushfires will be tempered. But meteorologists warned that short, intense thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding, while lightning brought the risk of new fires being ignited.
“We’re expecting unsettled weather for the next four or five days,” said Jake Phillips from the Bureau of Meteorology.
“Most of these firegrounds will receive some rain (but) whether it’s enough to put out the fires depends. It should at least slow the rate at which they spread.”
The wet weather could be the start of the heaviest rainfall so far this summer, with some areas expected to receive up to 100mm of rain by Monday.
Survivors of the catastrophic south coast bushfires were “overjoyed and overwhelmed” after 20mm of desperately needed rain washed across Batemans Bay, Mogo and Malua Bay.
“It was just amazing to hear the rain on my tin roof,” said Liz Innes, the Mayor of Eurobodalla Shire. “We need every drop at the moment, there’s no doubt about that.
“Everyone is so fragile and it will be a long road to recovery, so it’s lovely to have a bit of a break as we move into the recovery stage after the bushfires.”
An inland trough has been deepening across NSW as the affects of the Indian Ocean Dipole wear off, driving humid air across the state and sparking widespread thunderstorms.
Abrar Shabren, NSW forecaster at the BOM, said rain would continue across NSW, barring the state’s west and southwest, until Monday. “We will continue to see severe thunderstorms throughout the week, with very heavy, short, sharp bursts of rainfall,” he said.
The NSW SES has urged residents in fire-affected areas to take care and prepare their homes as the risk of flash flooding, falling trees and landslips could increase with the wet weather.
“In areas impacted by fires, where vegetation has been destroyed, water from heavy rainfall can flow into riverbeds and we could see run-off in areas where we wouldn’t normally see it, resulting in flash flooding,” NSW SES Assistant Commissioner Paul Bailey said.
By Thursday evening, the Hawkesbury region north of Sydney had received 48mm of rain, Armidale in the state’s north had received 25mm, while 18mm fell over southwest Sydney.
The deluge was a long time coming for many of the drought-afflicted areas in the state’s northwest. Towns including Wilcannia, Wanaaring and Bourke all recorded their heaviest rainfall since early November.
However, the Victorian Country Fire Authority said the rain it had received was not enough to put out the 18 fires still burning across the state.
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