IT’S not looking good for the Coalition.
New polling analysis has revealed the Morrison Government is facing an election wipe-out, with a drop in support across every mainland state and every voter demographic since Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister in August.
Analysis of four Newspolls since the August 24 leadership coup, published by The Australian this morning, reveals a potential loss of up to 25 seats across Australia based on two-party preferred swings since the 2016 election, with eight held by current frontbenchers.
It comes after a shocking 19 per cent swing against the Liberal Party at the Wentworth by-election on Saturday.
READ MORE: Kerryn Phelps dodges questions over historic Wentworth swing
The national average primary vote swing against the Government was 3 per cent, leaving the Coalition’s vote at 7.1 percentage points behind its 2016 election result.
Mr Morrison is enjoying personal satisfaction ratings higher than Mr Turnbull’s in every state except Victoria, where he was level with the former leader.
But while he’s emerged as a more popular leader than Mr Turnbull among over-50s, he’s proving less popular with those in the 18 to 34-year-old and 35 to 49-year-old brackets.
The most recent Newspoll, published on October 14, suggested the Coalition was recovering ground, but new analysis of poll results for the quarter points to swings as high as 5 per cent in Queensland and 7 per cent in South Australia.
The poll comes just days after the Liberals faced a massive swing against them in Saturday’s Wentworth by-election, where counting continues.
Likely Wentworth winner, independent Dr Kerryn Phelps, said she wouldn’t look to force the Government into an early election, but urged action on issues like climate change and the treatment of asylum seekers.
“We’ve got a bright future ahead of us as Australians, if we get this right,” Dr Phelps said on ABC’s Q&A last night. “And there were issues of such monumental importance to our future, like action on climate change, the treatment of asylum seekers, the future of the ABC, a national integrity commission. These are the issues that people wanted to talk about.”
Dr Phelps said there has been a lot of anger and frustration among residents of Wentworth with the direction the Liberal Party has been taking.
“They wanted more socially progressive policies and they weren’t hearing that from the Federal Liberal Party,” she said.
“All they were hearing about was the factional infighting within the Liberal Party and self-interest and not about the interest of the Australian people.”
On the back of referring to the current political climate as “confused” and in “utter chaos” Dr Phelps said it’s very important “we do have a stabilising effect of the crossbenchers, who are able to look at legislation and modify it where necessary, to reject bad legislation, to negotiate with Government for better outcomes for the Australian people”.
Several Coalition MPs blamed Mr Turnbull in the wake of the Wentworth result, suggesting it would have been different if he’d endorsed Liberal candidate Dave Sharma.
Dr Phelps said she didn’t want to “get too deeply into the analytics”, but added that “there was a lot of anger about the way Malcolm Turnbull was treated”.
“He was a popular local member. A lot of people were disturbed about the way he was removed and that was certainly a big factor. Whether he had come back in and said all is forgiven and everything is fine, I think that’s just fantasy.”
Mr Turnbull’s son Alex, who urged people in Wentworth not to vote for Mr Sharma, was more vocal on the subject.
The night after the by-election, he tweeted, “My work here is done,” with a screenshot of him muting the #Auspol hashtag on Twitter.
my work here is done. back to the dumpster fire of asian capital markets. pic.twitter.com/9bOj4rsBmf
— Alex Turnbull (@alexbhturnbull) October 21, 2018
The Government is not due to head to a federal election until May 2019.
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