Shorten poised to clinch narrow by-election victories12:46
Voting is underway in all five electorates of Longman, Braddon, Mayo, Fremantle and Perth in today's Super Saturday of by-elections. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten are campaigning in Tasmania today for their respective candidates, with Labor set to secure narrow victories in at least two crucial seats of Longman and Braddon. Over half a million Australians are having their say in what will have far-reaching implications for federal leadership. Image: Lyndon Mechielsen / News Corp Australia
YOU can thank all those dual citizen politicians for the vote. Once it was found out they weren’t entitled to sit in Canberra, the election for their seats had to be run again.
It’s being seen as a referendum on the leadership qualities of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten. If the Libs can gain a seat it will help shore up the PM’s thin majority. If Labor can hold onto their seats, Shorten will be secure as Labor leader; but if he loses the mutterings will grow about whether Anthony Albanese should take over.
In Western Australia, the currently Labor held seats of Fremantle and Perth are up for grabs. Labor are also the incumbents in the Tasmanian seat of Braddon and Longman, north of Brisbane. Rebekha Sharkie, formerly of Nick Xenophon’s party, is recontesting the Adelaide seat of Mayo. The Libs would love to get their hands of Longman, Mayo and Braddon.
Polls close in Queensland and Tasmania
And the voting is done in Longman and Braddon. The seats, in Queensland and Tasmania respectively, are being watched keenly as they will likely produce the tightest results.
Longman, north of Brisbane and centred on Caboolture, is a seat Labor currently hold with a slight majority. The Libs will be hoping preferences from one Nation voters will flow their way and help them nab the seat.
Braddon, in north west Tassie and including the conurbations of Devonport and Burnie, is a straight lab-Lib fight. Labor won it at the last election, the Liberal want it back.
Could be bad night for the PM as One Nation falters
Three Labor MPs and a crossbencher who resigned over their dual citizenship appear poised to hold their seats on a historic Super Saturday of by-elections, reports AAP.
Polling booths are due to close in Tasmania’s Braddon and Queensland’s Longman at 6pm AEST, with the latest Newspoll showing Labor ahead 51-49 in two-party terms in both seats.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who campaigned in Braddon on Saturday, talked down the Liberals’ prospects given no government has won a seat from the opposition at a by-election since 1920.
“Let’s be fair dinkum about it, Labor should be miles ahead,” he said. “What that tells you is that many … are disgusted and appalled by Labor’s lies.” Mr Turnbull said Labor had misled voters across the country over health spending cuts — a similar criticism levelled at the opposition at the 2016 federal election which ended in a one-seat majority for the coalition.
Labor leader Bill Shorten campaigned with his candidate Justine Keay in Braddon on Saturday, seizing underdog status for the opposition.
“Labor started these campaigns well behind,” he said.
“Anyone who tells you they know what’s happening is having a lend of you.” A strong flow of One Nation preferences to the Liberal candidate in Longman, Trevor Ruthenberg, will get him over the line.
But polls are showing a last-minute dip in support for Pauline Hanson’s party, which will help Labor’s Susan Lamb, who held the seat with a slim 0.8 per cent margin.
The two seats that just don’t matter
Voting is taking place in five seats across three states and you’d think every vote would count. But not in two of the seats. In Western Australia, citizens are heading to the polls in Perth and Fremantle. However, if they want to vote Liberal they’ll search in vain for the box to tick. The seats are so safe Labor, the Libs aren’t even bothering to contest them. So all eyes are on the east coast vote and the knife edge seats of Longman, Mayo and Braddon where there is everything to play for.
Shorten’s explanation for not campaigning
Labor leader Bill Shorten hit out at the PM who berated the alternative prime minister for not campaigning on Friday. Malcolm Turnbull was out and about having some animated conversation with potential voters.
But Shorten said he was just spending some dad time with his daughter. In a tweet he said, “Apparently Mr Turnbull was missing me today. ”As for his whereabouts: After nearly three months on the campaign trail in every by-election seat, I decided to be a dad first on school pick-up duties for my youngest daughter and her best friend.”
Apparently Mr Turnbull was missing me today. After nearly three months on the campaign trail in every by-election seat, I decided to be a dad first on school pick-up duties for my youngest daughter and her best friend. See you on the polling booths tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/SRARYpj85C
— Bill Shorten (@billshortenmp) July 27, 2018
Independent could hold off Liberals
Voters in the former-blue ribbon seat of Mayo will have the chance to return the electorate to the Liberal fold at Saturday’s by-election.
But candidate Georgina Downer would need to discredit consecutive polls to take the seat from Centre Alliance MP-turned-candidate Rebekha Sharkie.
The by-election was triggered after Ms Sharkie — who won Mayo for the Nick Xenophon Team in 2016 — became caught up in the dual citizenship saga and was forced to resign.
Her opponent, Ms Downer, is the daughter of Howard government foreign minister Alexander, who held the seat for the Liberal Party for 24 years. A recent poll in The Advertiser put her ahead 59-41 on a two-party basis while a ReachTEL poll of more than 700 voters returned a similar result on Wednesday night.
Despite the stark result, neither candidate has been willing to give weight to the poll.
“My intention is to be successful tomorrow and, of course, run next year for re- election as the member for Mayo,” Ms Downer said.
“I expected this would be a difficult campaign but it’s been a really fantastic time out here in Mayo and I’ve had a great reception in the community.” Ms Sharkie, the clear favourite, denied she was in a “unlosable position”. “I am so nervous here today,” she told reporters on Friday.
“The poll that counts is the poll (on Saturday).” Counting will start after polling closes at 6pm local time.
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