Election results 2019: Raw voting figures reveal real winners, losers - NEWS.com.au

We are pretty sure we know what happened on Saturday night, but a glance at the raw voting figures might confound your certainties.

It would reveal losers were actually top performers, and top performers went nowhere.

The Liberals benefited from a massive surge of voters. Right?

Not really. The Liberal first preference tally actually fell by close to 1 per cent, according to Australian Electoral Commission counts posted at midday.

The Liberal votes was 3,293,099, a 0.91 per cent fall from the 2016 level. It’s barely moved over two years, and certainly was not a flood of support.

So it must have been a Labor decline that did it in. No so. Labor’s first preference vote fell even less than the Liberals’ The ALP had 4,016,676 primary votes, a drop of 0.87 per cent from 2016.

The lesson, as in all modern elections, is not how many votes a party gets, but where they are cast. The Liberals won 27.76 per cent of the primary vote and Labor 33.86 per cent. But we know who won the election.

For example, Labor supporters would have been chocking the ballot boxes in inner city electorates, but that predominance of voters changed nothing. The ALP was almost always going to win those seats.

Just ask the Greens.

The Greens collected 10.04 per cent of the first preference vote, a total of 1,190,776. The Nationals had 4.89 per cent, or 579,457.

But the Nationals have won 10 seats and the Greens one. It depends where the votes land.

And of course winning seats depends on preferences.

The Liberals might have had a significantly lower primary vote than Labor — a gap of 723,577.

However, the Liberals could rely on the preference support of a million Liberal National Party voters in Queensland, and 34,000 Country Liberal Party voters in the Northern Territory.

And that tally is separate to the preference backing from Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

One Nation is chuffed its vote this election increased by 1.69 per cent, the biggest improvement of any party which contested the 2016 election.

But it won no House of Representatives seats and just one Senator. After the 2016 election there were four One Nation senators — briefly. In July the new Senate will have just two — Senator Hanson, who didn’t have to stand this election, and Malcolm Roberts who finally has worked out his citizenship.

Clive Palmer’s spending has become electoral legend with estimated totals on advertising and other promotion ranging from $50 million to $80 million.

This earned the United Australia Party 3.35 per cent of the vote — 397,816 ballots — and won the party nothing except some forced bragging rights.

It is difficult to believe Clive Palmer didn’t know he was not going to be rewarded by slots in parliament, which has raised speculation he wanted to diminish the Labor vote to prevent the elevation of a government which might be hostile to his mining projects.

Meanwhile, an examination of the tallies might produce the shock that 62,881 people gave their first votes to Fraser Anning, the former One Nation member who drifted sharply even further to the right with his own party, and finally to elected political oblivion.

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