How important are the Super Saturday byelections on July 28? For Labor, already forced into defering it triennial national conference set for that day, the best possible result is no change whereas the worst could change everything.
Losses could be leadership ending. Bill Shorten shortening.
The horror scenario for the poll-dominant ALP is a 'not impossible' net gain to the government of three seats, stretching an embarrassing one seat majority to four, and propelling Malcolm Turnbull to a general election, in double-quick time.
As one Liberal said on Friday, that would be "historic and unprecendented" – a government improving its majority within sight of a general election it was expected to lose.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten after his budget reply speech earlier this month.
Photo: Dominic LorrimerRejuvenated Liberals are even citing the July 2001 Aston byelection in which John Howard's dim prospects suddenly brightened and he stormed home in a general election just months later.
"I believe that the government is well and truly back in the game," Howard famously skited on the first episode of the ABC's Insiders program, the morning after the poll.
"If there were an unstoppable momentum for Labor to win the federal election, they'd have rolled us over in Aston."
Of course, the result of the five individual contests across four states may well be less dramatic. But Labor strategists are right to be nervous because none of the five is government-held. Numerically, Turnbull cannot lose.
Bill Shorten immediately hit the hustings on Friday and just as quickly confronted the question of his resignation in the event that Labor goes backwards.
"On that basis, Mr Turnbull should have already pulled the pin because he did not turn up to the Perth or Fremantle byelections, he's already lost them," Shorten snapped.
While Longman (Qld), secured by Labor's Susan Lamb on a margin of just 0.8 per cent in 2016 appears most vulnerable, Liberals are even more confident in Braddon (Tasmania) gained by Justine Keay by 2.2 per cent.
Then there's Mayo to Adelaide's south – a longstanding Liberal jewel surrendered in 2016 to the then Nick Xenophon Team's Rebekha Sharkie.
The consensus in Canberra is that Mayo is the least predictable, although one Liberal said "we'd be pretty disappointed not to win it back". On the plus side for the ex-NXT Sharkie, she is a hard-working MP with a real presence in the electorate. On the negative side it was her failure to relinquish UK ties which caused the byelection. Sharkie faces Georgina Downer who is attempting to enter the "family business" in the footsteps of her father and grandfather. Whether the so-called "dynasty factor" is a plus or minus is just one unknown. Labor and Greens preferences mean the Liberals will need virtually a 50 per cent primary vote.
At the recent March 3 state election their primary vote in the state seat of Braddon, which uses identical boundaries, did just that, hitting 56 per cent.
Tasmanian Liberals say strong jobs growth and the popularity of the Hodgman state government give the former MP, Brett Whiteley, an even chance of a blue ticket win, notwithstanding the low socio-economic status of the seat.
Keay weathered a torrid radio interview earlier this week over her dual citizenship which will have done nothing for Labor's confidence.
Branding the government's decision to jam Labor's triennial national conference as "blatantly partisan", Labor's national executive will meet next week to set a new date.
But the lasting import of these byelections is not the silliness of the date but their implications for the bigger game expected within 12 months.
A poor showing for the Coalition will scuttle its morale and delay a general election until next year. A poor showing for Labor, could see a spring election with Turnbull eager to move in case Labor switches leaders on him.
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