AFTER the driest autumn in more than 115 years, winter is arriving on Friday — but don’t grab your woollies just yet.
The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted a warm and dry start to the season for Victoria before the mercury drops in July.
WINTER WEATHER STARTS EARLY FOR MELBOURNE
Bureau senior climatologist Dr Andrew Watkins said Melbourne’s mild autumn conditions would persist for a while longer.
“For much of southeast Australia, we are looking at dry and warm conditions for winter,” he said. “June is looking like the driest and warmest part of the winter.”
But it will get cold eventually.
“Winter hasn't been cancelled by any means,” the forecaster said. “Come later June and July, I know I’ll be putting on the jumper every day.”
Those looking to hit the slopes for the start of the season next weekend could be disappointed.
“The outlook for June is for warmer and drier than normal conditions. That doesn’t really harbour well for a great start to the snow season,” Dr Watkins said.
“Midwinter is probably the best time for the snow.”
But Mt Buller’s Rhylla Morgan said some below-zero nights have allowed for snow-making to give mother nature a helping hand.
“We have been making snow since April 19,” she said. “These huge stockpiles of snow are added insurance should the early season snowfalls be slow to arrive.”
Autumn was the driest since 1902, according to Bureau records.
“The past few months have been certainly very dry and very warm for much of Australia, particularly southern Australia,” long-range forecaster Dr Watkins said.
“Southern Australia is likely to be the second driest on record for autumn.”
Minimal rainfall has contributed to low water storage levels across much of country.
“Normally May is the time water storages start to fill across southern Australia and unfortunately we haven’t seen that start to happen yet … still waiting on the rains to come through and start filling our dams and reservoirs,” he said.
“If conditions stay how they are at the moment, we would actually expect the rainfall to pick up a little bit going into spring or summer.”
With usual nationwide climate drivers El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole in neutral,
Bureau climatologist Jonathan Pollock said other factors would have greater influence this season.
“We’re expecting warmer than normal temperatures in the Tasman Sea this winter and associated lower-than-normal air pressure,” he said.
“We’re expecting to see below-average winter rainfalls for western parts of Western Australia and for most of New South Wales extending across the border into southern Queensland and northern Victoria.”
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