At 12:02 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, a massive X-class solar flare — the strongest kind — launched off the sun. It was the most intense of the sun’s current 11-year cycle, and the most powerful observed since Sept. 10, 2017.
Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation originating from sunspots. X-class flares are the most intense, followed by M-, C-, B- and A-class flares. On Friday, the sun unleashed an M-class flare on the heels of Thursday’s massive eruption.
After Thursday’s flare, high-energy particles bombarded the Earth just eight minutes later. They triggered a shortwave radio blackout over Central and South America, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration described as an “amazing event” and “likely one of the largest solar radio events ever recorded.”
Earlier today, the Sun popped off the largest #SolarFlare since September 2017. It’s certainly been a while since we’ve seen saturation like this in the SDO/AIA data. Unfortunately, this instrument wasn’t designed for large flares like this! #spaceweather pic.twitter.com/B7iU7OE3Vf
— Dr. Ryan French (@RyanJFrench) December 14, 2023
A number of U.S. National Weather Service aviation centers reported interference and degraded signal quality.
Now attention turns to Saturday and Sunday, when magnetism and solar material from the flare’s associated “coronal mass ejection,” or CME, could impact Earth. The slower-moving matter takes a couple of days to reach Earth. Once it arrives, however, it’s known for causing geomagnetic storming, pulsing through Earth’s magnetic field as it’s transformed into visible light — the aurora or northern lights.
Will we see the northern lights?
Predicting aurora is difficult. There are only two main ways to directly observe a possible coronal mass ejection before its arrival.
Immediately after one happens, we see it from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite that peers at the sun’s corona, or atmosphere. After scientists need to wait about two days until the CME arrives at the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite, about 1 million miles away from Earth. That gives barely an hour’s warning before a CME actually hits Earth.
That’s like a tsunami happening on the far side of an ocean; you know that it’s happened, but don’t know if its actually aiming toward you until, a long time later, the end of your dock suddenly starts moving. By then, it’s a bit late to prepare.
In this case, we know that a CME was launched into space by the flare. We’re in that weird time frame before DSCOVR can provide us a last-second confirmation. At this point, it’s likely that the shoulder of the CME will at least sideswipe Earth, potentially causing geomagnetic storming. That expectation is based on modeling, which shows the “shock wave” propagating through space.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is calling for at least G1 geomagnetic storming intermittently during the next three days. That should allow the aurora to slide down into southern Canada. More significant G2 or G3 geomagnetic storming can’t be ruled out, which would spill the aurora into the northern United States.
Here is a look at the coronal mass ejection launched during yesterday's X2.8 solar flare, which is the strongest solar flare since 2017! As expected, the CME is directed primarily towards the west but we do see a clear partial halo signature of over 270 degrees which stands to… pic.twitter.com/qfTgIa03Ii
— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) December 15, 2023
The geomagnetic storming is forecast to be less intense than on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, during which the northern lights were seen as far south as Arizona and Virginia, but sometimes there are surprises.
Significance of the flare
The original solar flare’s intensity is impressive. There are an average of 100 to 150 X-class flares per 11-year solar cycle. We’re approaching the peak of the solar cycle, which should come sometime in 2024.
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections originate from sunspots. The more sunspots, the better the chance of flares and CMEs. That’s why solar activity is expected to continue to increase through the solar cycle’s peak. Skywatchers should remain alert — the odds of seeing the northern lights will be greatest in the months ahead.
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December 16, 2023 at 05:46AM
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The biggest solar flare since 2017 just launched off the sun - The Washington Post
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